Sunday, October 9, 2016

Unless Trump Voluntarily Drops, the Republic is Doomed: Here is Why

(NOTE from 8/15/17: I was wrong with my prediction. Several more politically astute friends pointed out flaws in my argument right after I wrote it, and it turns out they were right and I was wrong. That being said, my favorite part of this post is the end note, and I still stand by that.)

Like my hero, Mike Pence, I am a Christian, a conservative, and a Republican; in that order. Because of that prioritization, I am able to write this today:

I am asking Donald J. Trump to withdraw for the sake of our republic. 

What's at stake? 

We all know that a Clinton Presidency likely means a liberal Supreme Court majority, more Benghazi type situations, and more of the same when it comes to the sluggish economy (and that means fewer jobs, especially for young people). 

I firmly believe that someone cannot call themselves conservative and vote for Clinton. I especially believe that someone cannot call themselves pro-life and vote for her. Intentionally advancing her power and tying your name to her, and her disastrous record, her poisonous words, and her stated objectives is a betrayal of every conservative principle that I know —particularly the defense of life.  

Is Trump better? 

That is complex. Is Trump, himself better? No. It is almost impossible to say where he stands on policies because he has taken almost every side on almost every issue. He is also a vulgar man who does not respect human dignity. In short he seems to have no moral core. The moral core is especially relevant when it comes to foreign policy and national defense because that is the area where the president has the most autonomous power. 

But would Trump be a bad president? I have no idea. Domestically, I don’t think he can be worse than Clinton. And unlike Clinton, he would have people around him in power who not only would be able to influence his decisions, but also would have independent authority to advance the ball on important conservative issues. But here is the bottom line: speculating about whether Trump would be a bad president is irrelevant: he cannot win

Trump has failed to unite the Republican Party against Clinton. 

Yesterday we saw the largest number of elected officials in history opposing their party leader. Nixon resigned when only a fraction of the GOP senators opposed him. 

The interesting thing is that while all these people who now oppose Trump uses the language of moral outrage in their denunciations, attacking Trump’s inexcusable statements, if you draw back the curtain you can see several different reasons for the opposition. Some oppose him for electoral reasons (supporting Trump in their districts means certain defeat). Some oppose him because he is going to hurt their power (establishment types who want things done their way). Some oppose him for policy reasons. But some have no reason to oppose him except they truly believe in holding leaders to a higher moral standard. 

And even if you totally disagree with all of the above reasons for these men and women oppose Trump, the fact is that he has failed to unite the party. 

What are the consequences of a divided party? 

Two days ago, it looked like the results of the election would be this: Clinton would be elected President, the Senate would be very close—maybe Democrat controlled, maybe Republican controlled—and the House of Representatives would be a firewall strongly held by the GOP (losing a few seats, but not too much change). However, with the divided party, it is likely that the Democrats will wrest control of both the White House and the Senate—and maybe even the House. 

How would that happen? 

White House: 
Even if only 15% of likely Republican voters don’t vote for Trump, that means that every close state that swings GOP by 7% or less will go for Clinton. For context in the 2012 election 17 states were won by less than that margin. In other words, 15% less voter turnout on one side can mean a landslide victory for the other. Also, note, a flash poll last night by the Politico shows that a majority of Republicans think that Trump should stay. That is not something that should surprise anyone. What is shocking is that 39% think that Trump should end his run for president. So I think my estimate of 15% is reasonable even assuming that most still are willing to vote for the "lesser of two evils." 

Senate and House:
Although this is going to vary by district, let me paint a picture of what Republicans running for office will face if Trump stays on the ballot:

Because of her pro-family stance, a Republican woman who is running for congress will be asked: "Do you support Trump and his statements about women? And how does this line up with your pro-family rhetoric?" She (and every other candidate) will be faced with a choice: 

What do they say? 

Remember that a large segment of Republican voters like Trump and have become his partisans. If our would be congresswomen opposes Trump she risks angering the pro-Trump voters. And even if this only translates to 15% of Republican voters opposing her, that could end her career. If she says that she supports him, then even if only 15% of Republican voters oppose her, that could end her career. 

Now, you might say, “Shouldn’t she put her country before her career?” And that's a fair question. But remember: her failure in her career means success for someone else. Every Republican that loses a House or, especially, a Senate seat, means another Democrat in Congress. And more votes for a Clinton agenda. 

That is disaster. Now, I admit that I’m partisan on this, but please hear me out: 

If we lose the Senate, then we lose the Supreme Court—probably for two decades. That means that Roe v. Wade will not likely be overturned until the basically the same number of unborn die due to abortion again as have already died since the ruling that made abortion legal in the 1970s. That is moral disaster. 

If we lose the House, Paul Ryan will be ousted as Speaker, every attempt to roll back government spending will be nothing more than a wish, and Clinton will get her way on everything. 

Remember, last time Democrats controlled the White House, the Senate, and the House? What happened? Obamacare. 

In short, if Trump doesn’t withdraw, the Republican Party is likely to face the worst electoral and policy disaster since the election of FDR. And we are still smarting from the disaster that came with that. 

So, for the sake of the Republic, I am asking Donald J. Trump to please end his run for President and work to unite the party to stop Clinton and the march of politics as usual in Washington DC. The Republic can't afford another era of disastrous Democratic policies.   

Article by Jeremiah Lorrig and first published on Looking for Overland

End Note: 

This all being said: If you think that a Trump or Hillary presidency is the end of the world or country, you have no faith in our country.

America has withstood civil war, divisions over racism, economic depression, two world wars, famine, plague, horrible leaders, flagrant corruption, and rampant hedonism. Christians have weathered much worse at the hands of pagans bent on wiping us out and our own fellow believers trying to force good theology by executions and torture.

Perspective is key. If you have no faith in your country (I still do), have faith in the God who created something from nothing. He will pull you through this.

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