Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Can Romney Beat Obama?

Source NewHour
Ever since the early days of the 2012 GOP primary there has been a chorus of commentators who have said that Romney is the only person who could beat Obama in November. This claim was challenged by people on the far right who argue that Romney cannot inspire the base and will lose because of that like McCain.

In short the whole argument has centered around the question “Can Romney beat Obama?”

This is the wrong question.

Over the last several months I have been advocating a new theory. I imagine that I am setting myself up for criticism from both my friends in the GOP establishment and in the Tea Party (yes, I am leaving out my friends on the left because they don’t participate in Republican politics). This, however, is the way I see it. Here it is: Obama can’t be defeated. But don’t give up in despair!

My theory is that incumbents cannot be defeated -- they lose.

Think about it. Bush Sr., Carter, Hoover. They all lost their office not because someone else showed up with a better message. They didn’t lose because some “electable” candidate toppled them. They didn’t lose because the other side’s base showed up in droves. They lost because their first term was seen as a failure of leadership.

They did such a bad job that people showed up to vote against them.

What does that mean today? It means that the ball in in Obama’s court. No matter who the GOP ran against him that person would have been nothing more than what Romney is: the other guy.

I personally have a lot of hope that we will see new leadership in DC. I believe that Obama deserves to lose because he has been a failure of leadership. Unlike Clinton in the 90s, Obama hasn’t worked with the Democrats in the House and Senate (let alone the Republicans). He has made bold declarations about his beliefs, but has been unable to put those beliefs into practice.

Not a single Democrat voted for his “budget” because it was laughable. He has not walked across the aisle (like Clinton did) and worked with Republicans on a single issue. He has doubled the already huge national debt and has no believable plan to pay it off. Even if you agree with his ideas, he is a failure of a president. 

I hope that people will see that in November. Because Obama cannot be defeated, but he can lose.
Source:White House Flickr
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